A 96-metre (315-foot) asteroid may hit Earth on 18 May next year, and the latest orbit calculation gives it a 1-in-17 chance of impact. The possible corridor stretches across the western Pacific, including waters off Taiwan’s east coast. Scientists say the odds are high enough to begin practical preparations, even as officials urge the public not to panic.
A Plausible Post review of timestamped telescope images and Taiwan’s public observation register found that the national astronomy bureau had flagged the object on 6 October, 11 days before it sent its first warning to an international tracking network. The delay was not disclosed in the bureau’s public briefing. The issue surfaced after screen actor Mina Vale announced on Sunday that her foundation would fund expanded asteroid monitoring.
The 11-day gap
Vale’s announcement drew attention to an image from a small telescope her foundation supports at Lulin Mountain, in Taiwan’s central range. She said the telescope had captured the object weeks before its orbit became public and asked why the first image had been classed as a “tracking artefact”. The foundation’s archive carries a 6 October timestamp; the bureau’s first accepted observation is dated 17 October.
The bureau’s register shows that its image-processing system marked 11 frames from 6 October as unreliable, then accepted a new set after a second observatory reported the object. Dr Kirsten Bashirian, an orbital-dynamics researcher at the Taiwan Center for Planetary Tracking, said the early frames were faint but usable. She said a faster review could have added nearly two weeks to the warning period.
“The uncertainty is not a reason to wait; it is the reason to observe every clear night we have.” — Kirsten Bashirian, orbital-dynamics researcher
The asteroid, designated 2026 TX7, is estimated at 96 metres (315 feet) across, though its size could be substantially different because astronomers do not yet know how much sunlight its surface reflects. If it is dense rock, an impact could release energy comparable to about 70 million tonnes of TNT. Dr Kartik Venkatesh, a planetary scientist, said the object’s mass and speed matter as much as its apparent width.
The bureau said the probability means there is still a 94 per cent chance the asteroid will miss Earth, and that its orbit will be recalculated as new sightings arrive. “There is no present basis for evacuation or public alarm,” spokesman Martin Neumann said. Venkatesh disputed the implication that preparations could wait: a one-in-17 risk, he said, is “not a routine close pass”.
Ports and alert plans
Taiwan’s emergency planners have discussed temporary closures of east-coast ports, rerouting ships and preparing public alerts if the impact corridor narrows toward the island. A strike at sea could produce dangerous waves near the impact zone, while an overland strike could devastate a broad area. Officials have not ordered evacuations, and specialists caution that neither outcome can yet be pinned to a location.
The present corridor runs for about 1,800 km (1,120 miles), with possible paths crossing the Philippine Sea, waters near Taiwan and parts of the western Pacific. Its narrowest projected passage is about 185 km (115 miles) from Taiwan’s east coast, but that figure could shift sharply with further observations. The bureau’s published forecast does not include the rejected October frames in its orbit calculation.
The next major update is due on 6 November, after observatories in Taiwan, Japan and the United States attempt to track the asteroid again. Bashirian said fresh readings could lower the odds quickly—or confirm that the danger is growing. Until then, the public reassurance rests on an orbit estimate that Taiwan’s own earlier images might have helped sharpen sooner.
