A snap parliamentary election could leave 1.08 million Moroccan voters registered at polling stations far from their current homes, according to a study published on Monday that warns a rushed vote may reshape the contest before a single ballot is cast. The researchers estimate that 34 of the country’s electoral districts could be decided by margins smaller than the number of voters facing the longest journeys.
The paper, published in the Journal of North African Public Policy, examines what would happen if the next national vote were brought forward and held with little time to update voter records. It comes as coalition figures discuss an early poll, though no election date has been announced and the government has not formally proposed one.
The cost of a rushed timetable
The researchers matched a sample of 4.2 million voter records against recent address changes and settlement data. In a 75-day election timetable, they calculated, affected voters would face a median additional journey of 22 km (14 miles); 184,000 would be assigned to polling stations more than 50 km (31 miles) from their current address.
The study’s lead author, Filofteia Duta, of the Rabat-based Centre for Electoral Arithmetic, said the results did not mean those voters would be unable to cast ballots. But people working away from home, older residents and households without reliable transport could face a choice between a costly journey and staying away, she said.
A short calendar can turn a routine address update into a barrier to voting.
Filofteia Duta, study co-author
The paper estimates that a temporary voter-registration and transport programme would cost MAD 38 million (about €3.5 million). Its authors say the government could reduce the risks by extending registration hours, opening transfer desks in provincial offices and publishing polling assignments earlier. They stress that their seat estimates are a model, not a forecast of which parties would win.
Parties demand a clear timetable
Berthold Berggren, a co-author and elections researcher, said the team tested its model against prior polling patterns and several turnout assumptions. The 34 potentially close districts are spread across urban and rural areas, he said, with the greatest travel gaps in fast-growing outskirts and remote settlements. The paper does not identify any party as the likely beneficiary.
Opposition lawmakers seized on the findings on Tuesday, calling for the interior ministry to publish a timetable before any decision on election timing. Stéphanie Poirier, a member of the parliamentary committee responsible for local administration, said the government should explain how quickly address changes can be processed and whether extra registration offices could be opened.
A ministry spokesperson, Teagan Thomas, said officials were studying the paper and that voter access would be considered in any election plan. The prime minister’s office declined to say whether an early vote was under discussion, but said the election calendar would be announced through the usual legal process.
The authors acknowledge limits: their data did not capture every recent move, and the model cannot establish how many people would change their voting plans. Still, they say the scale of the possible travel burden makes timing a practical test of election fairness. Their next step is to compare the model with polling-station assignments once the official register is updated.
