By Tuesday, 11 of 14 specialist seed dealers surveyed in Alexandria had run out of Suaeda aegyptiaca, a salt-tolerant native plant used in coastal wetland restoration. Sellers said the price had climbed from 180 Egyptian pounds per kilogram (about €3) to as much as 1,400 pounds (about €25) in less than two weeks.
The shortage threatens a government-backed planting programme that aims to raise 3.2 million seedlings for the Delta’s lagoon edges by next year. In el-Attarine’s covered lanes, buyers were turned away from empty wooden bins as traders blamed a scientific paper for triggering a rush on a crop few people had sought before.
A study sets off a rush
The paper, posted online on 30 September by the Alexandria Institute for Delta Botany, reported that seeds gathered at 14 lagoon sites had an average germination rate of 62%, down from 88% in a comparison set collected in 2019. Lead author Malak Cervantes-Uribe said rising soil salinity may be weakening the plant’s ability to reproduce.
The study tested stored seed samples in controlled trays; it did not count plants across the Delta or measure the total seed supply. Its results have not completed peer review. Still, restoration nurseries began placing larger orders within days of its release, according to three traders and the institute’s sales log.
“People read a warning about germination and heard that the plant was already gone,” Cervantes-Uribe said. “That is not what our results say.” She said her team had not recommended restricting sales or collecting more seed from wild populations.
The warning is not the only explanation for the empty bins. Mastura Mokhtar, a seed dealer whose family has traded in el-Attarine for 26 years, said one nursery bought 26 kilograms in a single visit last week — roughly what she would normally sell over a month. “I sold the last sack before noon, and people kept asking if I had hidden more,” she said.
Officials weigh the reserve
The Egyptian Coastal Restoration Office says it holds 140 kilograms of seed in storage, but it must retest germination before releasing the stock to nurseries. The programme needs an estimated 410 kilograms for its full planting target, office coordinator Benedek Dobos said, leaving a potential gap even if the reserve performs well.
Dobos said officials would publish the retest results by 20 October and decide whether to release the reserve in batches. He blamed “uncoordinated bulk buying” for worsening the shortage, while rejecting calls to import seed from abroad, which could introduce plants poorly suited to local lagoons.
Other scientists say the study’s comparison may be too weak to support a regional warning. Šárka Navrátil, an ecologist at the fictional-sounding but locally based Delta Field Research Centre, said seed age and storage conditions can change germination rates. She wants fresh samples from multiple sites before officials alter restoration plans.
The planting season begins in November, when nurseries move young saltwort into lagoon margins that help hold sediment and shelter wetland wildlife. If the reserve fails its tests, the office may scale back this year’s work. For now, dealers are rationing small remaining lots, and buyers are waiting for a result that could either calm the market or confirm the shortage is more than a panic.
