Singapore-based researchers say a 110,000-hectare (272,000-acre) section of the Kampar Peninsula peat dome in Riau has passed a hydrological tipping point: its peat has stayed dry enough for prolonged periods to release carbon rather than reliably store it. Their assessment, shared with regional agencies on Thursday, warns that continued drainage and hotter dry seasons could push annual emissions above 4.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030.
The finding came after technicians replaced a failing data gateway on 14 October and recovered raw measurements that the system had marked as current. The readings show the water table sank to an average of 64 centimetres (25 inches) below the peat surface for 11 months, far below the 40-centimetre (16-inch) level used by the researchers as a warning threshold.
The sensor gap
The network’s firmware replayed old readings whenever its connection dropped, while a green status indicator continued to tell operators that measurements were live. The problem affected 38 monitoring wells from June 2025 until the gateway was replaced; routine dashboard reports therefore showed water levels between 28 and 34 centimetres (11 and 13 inches) below the surface.
“These sensors told us the forest was wet when the peat was breathing carbon into the air,” said Refiloe Mnguni, a peat hydrologist at the Singapore-based Equatorial Systems Lab. New measurements and vegetation surveys point to a shift across roughly a quarter of the monitored dome, she said, though the whole Kampar Peninsula has not crossed the threshold.
We were issuing credits on a map of wet peat while the ground was drying beneath it.
Bjarke I. Brogaard, telemetry engineer
Credits under scrutiny
The monitoring network supported a restoration programme worth Rp210 billion (about €12.2 million), funded by public money and carbon-credit sales. Its registry issued 480,000 credits over two years based partly on claims that water levels were being maintained. The registry has frozen further sales and asked buyers to pause use of the credits while it checks the underlying measurements.
Brogaard said the device logs showed repeated connection failures, but the system’s status display did not flag the replayed data. He found the discrepancy while checking the installation after the gateway replacement. Researchers have not found evidence that anyone deliberately altered readings; the programme’s verification rules, however, accepted automated summaries without requiring a regular comparison with raw records.
Indonesia’s land ministry said the results did not establish that the peatland had changed irreversibly. Eduard Marková, a deputy director in its peat restoration office, said the ministry would review drainage controls and put fresh instruments at the most affected sites. “There is no reason to expect an immediate haze emergency in Singapore,” he said.
Mnguni cautioned that the reassuring message does not settle the longer-term risk. If dry conditions persist, oxygen penetrates deeper into peat and speeds its breakdown; the team’s high-emissions projection assumes drainage continues and severe dry seasons recur. A reversal would require raising water levels across connected canals and planting water-tolerant vegetation, not simply replacing sensors.
Officials from Indonesia, Singapore and local research groups are discussing a temporary canal-blocking plan, a new independent set of water gauges and a review of the credits already sold. The researchers say the threshold applies to one part of one peat dome, not the entire rainforest. They also say fast repairs could still limit further drying: the new gauges are transmitting live readings, and field teams are due back before the next dry season.
