The volcano’s monitoring centre counted 1,746 shallow earthquakes between 26 September and Friday morning, while instruments recorded 11 centimetres (4.3 inches) of uplift near the summit in nine days. The four-level alert was raised to orange on Thursday, the second-highest setting, meaning an eruption is possible but not certain.
The alarm reached a far larger audience when French film actor Dorian Trumbel told his 18 million followers on Thursday that he had moved his 62-person production crew away from northern Martinique and urged residents to leave by Sunday. “Don’t wait for someone to tell you it’s too late,” he said in a video. The island’s authorities said his message was not an official warning.
Genoveva Russel, a volcanologist at the Pelée Monitoring Centre, said the combination of swelling, gas changes and frequent quakes pointed to magma moving beneath the mountain. “We cannot give a reliable day or hour. But if this acceleration continues, an eruption in the coming days is a real possibility,” she said.
Signals beneath the summit
The centre’s bulletin recorded sulphur dioxide emissions rising from about 380 tonnes a day in mid-September to 2,100 tonnes on Thursday. Russel said the measurements were consistent with fresh magma approaching the surface, but could not show whether it would erupt or cool underground. The last eruption at Pelée was in 1932; the mountain’s deadly 1902 eruption destroyed Saint-Pierre.
The worst-case planning scenario is a fast-moving pyroclastic flow reaching settlements within 10 kilometres (6 miles) of the summit, with ash clouds disrupting flights across the eastern Caribbean. Scientists say the wind could carry ash more than 150 kilometres (93 miles); an eruption column rising to 15 kilometres (9 miles) could force several days of airspace restrictions. They stressed that this is a planning scenario, not a forecast.
The data justify preparation now, not a claim that the island must flee by Sunday.
Genoveva Russel, volcanologist
Martinique Civil Protection Directorate chief Efe T. Leonard said there was “no evidence that an eruption is under way or certain in the next 24 hours”. The directorate has identified 6,400 people in areas that could face the earliest evacuation orders and is checking buses, shelters and road access. No evacuation order had been issued by Friday afternoon.
Who controls the warning
The public disagreement has also exposed a dispute over how the alert was communicated. Russel said scientists were not invited to a Monday meeting where the wording of the public notice was settled. Leonard said the technical team had supplied its findings and that officials were responsible for turning them into advice residents could act on.
Marleen Rätsep, who lives in Le Prêcheur on the volcano’s northern flank, said some neighbours were packing while others feared leaving without a clear instruction. “We need one message that tells us what to do, not two versions competing on our phones,” she said. Local officials have opened a telephone line for residents seeking transport or shelter information.
The monitoring centre plans to publish updated seismic and gas readings at 06:00 on Saturday, with a public briefing later that morning. Russel said a drop in tremors or gas could ease concern, while continued acceleration would require authorities to consider wider restrictions. Trumbel’s video remained online on Friday, carrying his advice to leave before the weekend.
