The 230-metre (755-foot) asteroid 2026 QX7 could strike Earth in 2032, a study published on Monday says, giving it a 2.4% chance of impact — about one in 42. The authors say the odds are uncertain and could fall as observations improve, but warn that a collision would devastate a large region.
First spotted on 22 August by the Mesa Vista Sky Survey in Arizona, the asteroid has since been tracked in 87 observations from six observatories. Its calculated impact chance has remained above 1% for 72 days, the longest such run for a known object estimated to be more than 200 metres wide.
The odds are still shifting
The study, published in the fictional Journal of Applied Orbital Dynamics, maps a possible impact corridor stretching about 6,000 km (3,700 miles) across the North Pacific, from waters west of Hawaii towards Baja California. That is not a prediction of where the asteroid will hit: it represents the range of possible paths allowed by current measurements.
If the object struck land, its estimated energy — about 800 megatons of TNT — could flatten buildings across a broad area. An ocean impact could also generate dangerous waves near some coastlines, though the scale would depend on the exact location and angle. “This is not a planet-killer,” said Mariana Bahena, an orbital dynamicist and co-author. “It is large enough to turn a regional disaster into a national emergency.”
Study co-author Nilesh Mistry, a planetary scientist who keeps a public log of nightly observations, said the duration of the elevated odds was what prompted the team to publish now. “A 97.6% chance of missing is not the same thing as a 2.4% chance of no consequence,” he said.
“A 97.6% chance of missing is not the same thing as a 2.4% chance of no consequence.” — Nilesh Mistry, planetary scientist
The Federal Near-Earth Office said the new estimate should not be read as a prediction of impact. Its spokesperson, Viljo N. Vainio, said the asteroid was “far more likely to miss than to hit” and that fresh observations were expected to narrow the calculation. No evacuation planning or public warning has been ordered.
A narrowing window for action
Researchers say the next months matter because the asteroid’s position against the stars will become harder to measure after January. The paper urges the government to begin assessing a robotic deflection mission, which would use a spacecraft to alter the asteroid’s path. A launch decision would likely be needed by 2028 to leave time for a mission to reach it.
Fabio Scharf-Grabner, a planetary engineer who reviewed the study, said officials should not wait for the odds to climb before considering options. “You do not need to panic, but you do need a plan that can be put into motion,” he said. Vainio said the government was monitoring mission proposals but had made no commitment to fund one.
The researchers expect to update their orbit calculation after the next observing window opens in 2027. A further set of measurements could reduce the risk to effectively zero, or confirm that the narrow band of possible paths still includes Earth. Until then, the study’s authors say, 2026 QX7 remains a rare case in which a small probability carries consequences too large to ignore.
